Escalation and risk of nuclear war

The world is on the brink of nuclear war, but hardly anyone is talking about it. Several wars and conflicts have the potential to become the triggering factor.

“It seems that both the fear of nuclear weapons and the fear of a third world war have weakened ... Now only Jurgen Habermas is afraid of the atomic bomb, and he is 95 years old and will soon die.”
– Kaj Skagen in Dag og Tid

We have never been closer to a nuclear war than we are now, but almost no one is talking about it. Those who are talking about it are Habermas' age, or 20-30 years younger. I can't remember hearing a youth politician talk about it. Nor anyone in Parliament. The possibility of a nuclear war is simply a non-issue. And that's how it must be, I think, when a united Storting in practice works every day through its actions to realize a third world war. Unfortunately, the representatives seem to be too stupid and ignorant to realize it themselves.

It's worth remembering that in January this year, the scientists at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists set the “doomsday clock” to 90 seconds to midnight, the closest we've ever been to a nuclear war. Their justification was the war in Ukraine. “A lasting end to Russia's war in Ukraine seems distant, and there remains a serious possibility that Russia will use nuclear weapons in the conflict,” said the press release from the nuclear scientists in January this year. In January 2025, the clock will be adjusted again, and one suggestion is that it could be set forward another ten seconds, to 80 seconds at midnight. Again based on developments in the war in Ukraine.

But I'll come back to that. There are other wars/conflicts that could also lead to nuclear weapons being used for the first time since 1945.

North Korea/South Korea

This may have gone under most people's radar, but a few days ago South Korea's defense minister came close to causing a nuclear war.

President Yoon Suk Yeol declared a state of emergency on December 3. He accused his political opponents from the Democratic Party of allegedly “sympathizing with North Korea” and “supporting anti-state activities intended to incite rebellion”. Yoon insisted that martial law was a “necessary measure to root out these shameless pro-North Korean anti-state forces”.

However, the National Assembly fought back and voted unanimously to lift the presidential state of emergency. Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun was imprisoned. He attempted to commit suicide while in custody.

The defense minister ordered a swarm of drones to be sent up towards Pyongyang to provoke an attack from North Korea. President Yoon was to use this as a pretext to declare a state of emergency. It is quite clear that the Minister of Defense did not do this of his own volition. There is speculation that it was in fact the United States that ordered Yoon to launch the operation, to ensure escalation in relations with North Korea and - just as importantly - China.

It is worth noting that no peace treaty has been signed between North and South Korea, but there is an existing armistice that was signed in 1953. During the Korean War, American generals were eager to nuke North Korea, but they had to settle for turning northern Korea into a gravel pit. Now North Korea has become a nuclear weapons state, so this is really dangerous.

If the US is interested in provoking a war in Korea, it could involve China. And the conflict between the US and China has the potential to become a war in which nuclear weapons are used.

China/Taiwan/USA

In the conflict between the USA and China, Norway has been drawn into the American side through NATO. Most people, and uninformed Norwegian politicians, have been propagandized to hate and fear China. This anti-Chinese propaganda is a psychological disinformation campaign initiated by the United States, where the Senate has set aside 325 million dollars annually until 2027, in what is called “The Countering Chinese Influence Fund”. The purpose is to counter the “malignant influence” of the Chinese Communist Party globally. In particular, it is important to tarnish the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which now includes 150 nations and organizations.

In 2020, one of the worst war hawks in the Senate - Marco Rubio - who will now become Trump's Secretary of State, took the initiative to create “The Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China”. The organization consists of US-friendly parliamentarians from many countries and is an expression of the United States' frantic attempts to secure its old hegemony so that it can continue to dictate the “world order”. Guri Melby, leader of the Norwegian Liberal Party, sits on the board.

This is an expression of desperation on the part of the failed hegemon USA. The world's strongest imperialist power feels seriously challenged and is doing everything in its power to fight anyone who might threaten its position. They use all the classic propaganda tricks in the book, portraying themselves as defenders of democracy and freedom of expression and a “rules-based world order”.

“China does not share our values”, said Jens Stoltenberg when he was NATO Secretary General. No, that's right. While the US is provoking conflicts around the world, China has promoted economic development, lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty, built infrastructure and encouraged win-win cooperation with the whole world.

That's why the US is doing everything it can to crush China, in the worst case scenario through a hot war, which includes building alliances with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and other US protectorates in Asia. The US has over 300 military bases in the area. And NATO is coming in full force. The only two operational Norwegian frigates have now been rebuilt so that they can operate in tropical regions. The navy's largest ship, the logistics and supply ship “KNM Maud”, will also act as a support ship for US-led aircraft carrier groups in the South China Sea.

In the fall of 2021, the book “Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict” was published. It is written by Elbridge A. Colby, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Colby was the chief architect of the National Defense Strategy launched by the Trump administration in 2018, the most significant revision of US defense strategy in a generation. Here, Colby lays out how U.S. defense must change to meet China's growing power and ambitions.

In the book, Colby advocates launching “a limited war” against China if necessary, which could involve the use of nuclear weapons.

Ukraine/Russia

On November 28, the European Parliament adopted a new Ukraine resolution - “Strengthening the EU’s Unwavering Support for Ukraine Against Russia’s War of Aggression and the Increasing Military Cooperation Between North Korea and Russia.”

In the resolution, the European Parliament demands that European states provide Ukraine with the long-range cruise missiles needed to take the war deep into Russia and calls on member states not to be deterred by any Russian threats to respond with nuclear weapons. More specifically, it calls on member states for the immediate delivery to Ukraine of fighter jets capable of carrying long-range cruise missiles.

The use of such missiles would require qualified military personnel from NATO, which would make NATO an active party in the war.

In a last-ditch effort, the Biden administration has already accepted that Ukraine can attack targets deep inside Russia. As a result, Russia has now changed its nuclear doctrine. Russia's original doctrine only allowed the use of nuclear weapons if Russia faced a nuclear or conventional attack that threatened the existence of the Russian Federation.

With the US, UK and other NATO countries now supporting long-range missile strikes inside Russia, Putin says it will mean that NATO is at war with Russia. The new doctrine would consider an attack on Russia by a non-nuclear weapon state supported by a nuclear weapon power as a joint attack, and it allows the use of nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack that poses a “critical threat to Russian sovereignty”.

To illustrate how totally irresponsible the US administration is acting, we can refer to Bob Woodward's new book “War”, which contains shocking information. In September 2022, US intelligence estimated that there was a 50% chance that Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The intelligence information referred to “highly sensitive, credible conversations in the Kremlin” that President Vladimir Putin was seriously considering using nuclear weapons to avoid heavy casualties on the battlefield. This was at a time when 30,000 Russian soldiers were surrounded in Kherson. At around the same time, President Biden publicly stated that the risk of a nuclear “armageddon” was higher than it had been at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Despite the enormous risk of nuclear war, Biden did not change course. In other words, the US, with NATO in tow, was willing to gamble on a nuclear Armageddon, where the odds were as high as 50%!

Since then, the situation on the battlefield has changed. Russia has the upper hand, and despite massive support from Western countries, it looks like Ukraine will soon have to accept negotiations to stop the war. The chances of Russia using nuclear weapons may be reduced, despite the new nuclear doctrine. It's also likely that Russia will wait for a counter-reaction to see if Trump will actually do something to end the war.

But is it conceivable that the Ukrainian leadership, in a last desperate attempt to go on the offensive, is willing to use nuclear weapons?

Professor of nuclear physics at the University of Bergen, Dieter Röhrich, recently said at the Anti-War Initiative's conference that Ukraine has what it takes to make a nuclear bomb, and that it could happen relatively quickly, within a few months. Perhaps this bomb is already in production now that defeat is approaching?

Iran/Israel

Very topical right now is Syria. The fall of Assad is a long-awaited regime change operation on the part of the US, and Israel now sees the opportunity to realize a Greater Israel. Having got rid of Syria, only Iran remains on the list of regimes that the US and Israel will jointly overthrow.

Israel is a nuclear weapons state. The extreme Zionists in Israel, in tandem with neoconservative, Christian fundamentalists in the USA, will now focus all their energy on overthrowing Iran. The Trump administration is made up of hawks who for years have been eager for a war against Iran, and now everything is in place.

The point here is that in order to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, which Iran is capable of and which is now highly relevant since the threat from the US/Israel is more serious than ever, nuclear weapons must be used.

If possible, Iran will develop nuclear weapons deep inside mountains or far underground. In order to take out these weapons factories, only a nuclear weapon would be of any use; conventional missiles would not be able to do so.

A scenario in which Israel attacks Iran with nuclear weapons, under the pretext of preventing Iran from developing the same type of weapons, is therefore not unlikely.

Nuclear targets in Norway

The establishment of 12 US military bases in Norway increases the likelihood of nuclear weapons on Norwegian soil, in Norwegian waters and in Norwegian airspace. This means that Norway can both be used to launch nuclear missiles against Russia and that Norway becomes a natural target for Russian nuclear missiles.

This is a policy that Norwegian politicians have embraced with open eyes, and it is criminally irresponsible!

Among the possible targets published by the Financial Times (August 12, 2024), based on information from Western intelligence services, are the French west coast, military installations in Norway, Germany and Estonia, and the British port of Barrow-in-Furness, where nuclear submarines are being built. The newspaper writes:

“The Russian Baltic Fleet's targets are largely located in Norway and Germany - including the naval base in Bergen, as well as radar and special forces facilities.”

The article in the Financial Times reveals that Russia has a much lower threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons than has ever been publicly admitted. Plans have been drawn up for overwhelming attacks in the early stages of a potential war against NATO.

In August, Forsvarets Forum wrote a short article about the revelations in the Financial Times and mentioned Rena, where the Norwegian special forces in the Telemark battalion are based, the air base at Rygge, where the Norwegian Air Force leadership is located, and the naval base Haakonsvern, as targets for Russian nuclear attacks.

NATO is a nuclear weapons alliance

In conclusion: It's not possible to be a supporter of NATO and at the same time be against nuclear weapons. Let's clear up that misconception once and for all. This goes especially to the Socialist Left Party, which has now become a YES to NATO party. All parties that say YES to NATO are also YES to nuclear weapons parties!

As a member of the nuclear weapons alliance NATO, Norway will never sign the UN's nuclear weapons ban, which is now international law, after 73 states have signed. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to a direct question about why Norway does not sign the nuclear weapons ban:

“Norway cannot join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons as it would conflict with our NATO membership. No NATO country has signed or ratified the agreement, nor have any states with nuclear weapons.”

Working for a world free of nuclear weapons is therefore incompatible with being a member of NATO. As long as Norway is part of this nuclear weapons alliance, we are actively contributing to escalating warfare, which in turn threatens the very existence of continued life on the planet.

(this article was given as an introduction at the board meeting of the Anti-War Initiative on December 16, 2024).